Traffic Drops, Check Increases in the USA: Which Figure Should the Azerbaijani Entrepreneur Look At?
In May, restaurant traffic weakened in the US. According to Jefferies/Placer data, declines of approximately 250 basis points in the fast-food segment, 200 in the burger category, and 520 in chicken restaurants were recorded. The pizza segment remained almost stable.
What happened? In the US, restaurant traffic weakened in May (Jefferies/Placer): fast food dropped by about 250 basis points, burger by 200, chicken by 520; pizza remained nearly flat. Despite this, same-store sales were +1.8% — because the average check amount rose by 70 basis points and partially offset the decline in traffic. In other words, fewer visits, more spend per visit.
**Why is it important? **This is a key signal of a softening market: growth is driven by price/check, not foot traffic. The danger is that inflated revenue hides customer loss; the numbers look good until the traffic collapse becomes apparent.
**Lesson for Azerbaijan (by the numbers) **Azerbaijan is still in the opposite picture: according to the State Statistics Committee, in 2026 Q1, public catering turnover was 630 million manats, with real growth of 5%+ (inflation ~5.7%). That is, the market is truly growing — but it has slowed from 13–17% in 2025 to ~5%. The US is a warning mirror: every operator must break down their own numbers — is this growth from new customers or just price (as in the kebab shrinkage story)? Bonus: the new tax rewards cashless payments (6% vs 8%) — switching to cashless reduces tax and provides clean data to measure this traffic/check question.
Risk" Assuming your situation just because 'the sector is growing.' An increase in manat revenue does not mean customer count has increased; inflation can inflate revenue while traffic silently declines. If you don't measure, you'll notice too late.
**DK's perspective **The market is growing for real, but the average check is not the only number. Track traffic, average check, and food cost separately; switch to cashless. The one who measures, not the one who misses the wave, wins.